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16城加入“引人大战”,还有什么牌可以打

2019-02-22 00:44:37

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     16城加入“引人大战”,还有什么牌可以打
  明言财经
  在城市人口总量相对固定的背景下,人口的争夺是一个零和游戏,只要有一个城市打起“引人”的大旗,其他城市就不得不跟进。
  据报道,仅2月11日至2月15日的5天间,就有常州、海口、西安、南京、深圳等5个城市出台人才引进新政,其中4城降低了落户门槛。有机构统计,截至2月18日,在2019年发布各种人才引进与落户等政策的城市已超过16个。





  自2016年末起,国内大城市就开始了引人大战,标志性事件就是西安在2017年3月大幅降低落户门槛。随后,几乎所有的二线明星城市,都跟进了争夺人才的大潮。引人的手段从降低落户的学历、居住时间等门槛到给人才补贴等,花样繁多。
  这突破了很多人的惯性认知。在多数人看来,中国是人口大国,压根不缺人,大城市更不缺人。这些城市不用承诺落户,就会有大量的人前来打工、置业,其所缺的只是高端人才。高校扩招后,本科生不再紧缺,有些城市甚至只有硕士可落户。
  如今看,这已经成了一种幻象。以往中国的城市化水平长期低于工业化水平,造成近年来持续、快速的城市化。人口不断地从农村向城市迁移,所以城市并不担心人口的涌入会减少。但眼下拐点已至,一方面大城市的生活成本高,挤压了进城农民工的收支结余;另一方面国家持续增加对农村的投入,来自农村的推力已不如以前那么强了。
  最近几年进城农民工的增量已经不足1%,这意味着农村向城市移民已经停止。城市人口要扩张,将不得不从其他城市吸引存量劳动力。城市从农村吸纳劳动力相对容易,只要有就业机会、有钱赚,农村移民就愿意到城市里打工。但想要从其他城市吸纳人口,一个就业机会肯定无法满足他。这也是为什么新一轮引人大战的主打牌并非就业,而是落户。
  人口对任何一个城市都是至关重要的。城市的生命力在于规模,更在于不断地增长。只有新市民源源不断地涌入,才能给城市带来增量、活力和创新。在中国,人口流动带来的新增人口更是平衡各城市日益紧张的社保收支、土地出让金收入的基础。在城市人口总量相对固定的背景下,人口的争夺是一个零和游戏,只要有一个城市打起“引人”的大旗,其他城市就不得不跟进。
  因此,只要人口增长是重要的,只要城市间是竞争的,人口的争夺战也必定是一个逐底竞争,对人才的要求会越来越低,人口争夺战也将逐步蔓延到中职和高中学历。过去两年各城市的人才政策变化,特别是2019年部分城市的人才政策调适,已经证明了这一点。
  但本科学历可能很快也不是人口争夺的重点,城市会发现低学历的成年劳动力也很抢手,这个时候要抢人,恐怕不仅仅是给劳动力本人户口就可以把人吸引过来,允许父母投靠和举家落户等政策就必不可少。
  考虑先发优势以及中心城市之间的硬件和就业机会相差不多,能吸引他们的,只有公共服务的水平与社会融合的速度。只要能让外来人口更好更快地融入社会,让新市民有尊严地生活在城市里,谁就会建立起相对于其他城市的制度优势。这需要在户籍制度和公共服务提供机制上下更多的功夫,2019年及将来引人大战的重点,也会落在这方面。
  □聂日明(上海金融与法律研究院研究员)









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