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中国军官就钓岛与美激烈交锋 美方坦承战争非美选项


2019-07-16 22:49:18

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《暴雨将至》陈小春演特务头子直呼好玩,土屋太凤山崎贤人曝恋情 烤肉店约会被拍 美女双胞胎同被哈佛录取 妈妈心愿:带回男朋友,春天来临,玛丽温馨提醒:请注意预防风疹和水痘 美对越军售解禁的“放”与“防”许利平日前,美国总统奥巴马在访问越南期间宣布全面解除对越南武器禁售令,舆论一时间哗然。因为这在奥巴马访越前并不被认为是大概率事件。不过,笔者认为需要特别注意的是,美方强调在向越南售卖武器时,需要“逐笔审议”。其中条件之一就是越南要过“人权关”。很显然,美国看似全面解除禁售令,实际上是解而不售。那么山姆大叔葫芦里卖的是什么药?打战略牌。随着南海局势不断升温,越南在美国“亚太再平衡”战略中的地位凸显,美国试图拉拢越南,把其作为“亚太再平衡”战略中一个关键棋子。但美国和越南在政治结构上存在天然的缺陷,政治互信严重不足。美国试图通过全面解除武器禁售令,表明美国政府与越南政府发展全面伙伴关系的政治决心,希望越南配合美国的亚太再平衡战略。打军事牌。越南的金兰湾是美国早就觊觎的军事基地。金兰湾是太平洋通向印度洋的重要通道,水深,易守难攻,冷战时期曾是美国和前苏联争夺的重要战略要地。美国希望打“军售牌”,迫使越南允许美国军舰在金兰湾停靠、维修等,从而使得美国获得在南海上重要军事支点。打经济牌。TPP(跨太平洋伙伴关系协定)是美国“亚太再平衡”战略的重要抓手之一,而越南则是TPP重要成员,可以说是TPP的最大受益者。奥巴马政府希望在2016年底,美国国会通过TPP,为其政治遗产画一个圆满的句号,但阻力相当大。美国则希望得到越南配合,为TPP摇旗呐喊,造势鼓劲,为奥巴马卸任之前的政治遗产背书。与此同时,虽然美越这对“老冤家”,从“敌人到伙伴”走到今天已经有21个年头,但完成真正转变并不轻松。这次奥巴马在越南访问3天,停留时间较长,但越南方面最在意的提升双边关系愿望并没有得到实现。其实,越南方面希望同所有的联合国安理会常任理事国建立战略伙伴关系,现在就剩下美国没与其建立这一关系。美国对越南的“和平演变”的企图丝毫也没有任何改变,对此越南党和政府心知肚明。基于越南同中国、越南同俄罗斯的传统友好关系,美国对越南采取的政策仍是“既拉又压”。通过“逐笔审议”的军售政策可以看出,美国仍控制着风筝线,一方面希望在战略上拉住越南,不希望越南与中国、俄罗斯走得太近;另一方面,通过“人权关”,这一模糊的政治话语,迫使越南配合美国“亚太再平衡”战略。应该看到,越南奉行的是大国平衡的外交政策,主张全方位、多样化外交策略,不跟任何国家结盟,也不允许外国在越南建立军事基地。因此,此次美国全面解禁对越武器禁令,政治意味大于军事意义。 (作者是中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员)


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