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2017年减少6367亿,GDP核算从不是一锤定音

2019-01-22 16:49:27

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     2017年减少6367亿,GDP核算从不是一锤定音
  精打细算
  每年的GDP数据在一年之后的最终调整时,都会做出或增或减的调整,而2017年被削减的6367亿元,被认为真的不存在。
  近日,国家统计局发布了关于2017年国内生产总值(GDP)最终核实的公告。公告显示,经最终核实,2017年,GDP现价总量为820754亿元,比初步核算数减少了6367亿元;按不变价格计算,比上年增长6.8%,比初步核算数下降0.1个百分点。





  如果分结构看,第一产业比重下降了0.3个百分点,第三产业比重上升了0.3个百分点,第二产业比重不变。有读者关心,6367亿元去哪儿了?其实,如果按照核算的理论、方法、制度和程序解释,初步统计时认为应该有的6000多亿元,经过最终核算,被认为真的没有。
  GDP核算不是一锤定音
  GDP,即国内生产总值,是一个国家(或地区)所有常住单位在一定时期内生产活动的最终成果。美国经济学家诺贝尔奖获得者萨缪尔森说:GDP是20世纪最伟大的发明之一。
  很多人以为这个指标同其他许多指标一样,应该是一级级、一个个加出来的。其实,GDP是一个核算数据,它是核算出来的,而不是加总出来的。这个总量指标覆盖国民经济各行业,既需要统计数据,也需要会计资料;既需要常规报表,也需要普查数据、抽样调查数据;既需要统计部门的数据,也需要财税、金融、保险等各相关部门资料;既要汇总数据,还要搜集资料进行虚拟估算,编制平衡表。
  GDP核算有三种方法:生产法、收入法和支出法。理论上三种方法的结果应该一致,但由于资料来源庞杂,计算复杂,即使是一个国家和地区在同一报告期,不同核算方法的结果也往往不一致。
  也正因为如此,所以,GDP核算数据也不是一锤定音。由资料取得的难度和复杂程度决定,要使GDP数据相对准确,需要各种基础数据尽可能齐全。而财务数据、会计决算资料往往要在年后数月才能完成并提供。
  但作为“经济状况的完整图像(萨缪尔森语)”,GDP又不能总是姗姗来迟,所以,世界各国的GDP数据一般都不是一锤定音,而是在最初依据掌握的资料先做测算和计算,并随着资料的齐全完整而不断进行修订。特别是年度数据,要随着所获资料的不断增加做多次调整。
  如果连续观察可以发现,每年的GDP数据在一年之后的最终调整时,都会做出或增或减的调整。如2018年1月5日,国家统计局就发布公告,对2016年全国GDP数据进行了最终核实修订,GDP总量被调减下542亿元。
  而其他国家不仅GDP年度数据要多次调整,历时较长,且有的对季度数据也要经过多次调整。如2018年,美国二季度实际GDP环比预期为增长4%,初值为增长4.1%,修正值为增长4.2%,每次各上修0.1个百分点;而其三季度实际GDP年化季环比,预期、初值和二读均为3.5%,但终值修订为3.4%,下修了0.1个百分点。
  GDP增长区间为政策制定创造更多灵活性
  尽管GDP修订是一种国际惯例,但我们应在加强统计法制建设的同时,不断完善我们的核算制度,提高核算的及时性和准确性,努力使每一笔数据都经得起历史的检验。
  如果我们进一步改进专业统计,特别是加强财务统计、细化服务业进度统计工作,无疑也会提高季度GDP核算的精度,缩小季度核算、年度初步核算与最终核实数据之间的差距,为中国经济高质量发展提供更优质的统计服务。
  与此同时,既然GDP不是绝对的,而是不断调整的,那么,在最开始的预测环节中,我们或许也应为经济增长提供更多空间。比如,在最近多个省份披露的2019年国内生产总值预期增长目标中,不再设定单一数值,而是将这一目标表述为区间值,加设上下限。如此一来,为巩固调整成果以及适应和应对各种复杂情况预留了一定空间。
  总之,作为20世纪的一个伟大发明,如何让GDP增长既为经济增长创造合理空间,又能提高GDP核算专业性和科学性,切实为经济增长大局服务,将考验每一位政策制定者。
  □潘璠(国家统计局统计科学研究所原所长)









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