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2018年中国经济“成绩单”今揭晓 关注四大看点

2019-01-22 17:10:07

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     中新经纬客户端1月21日电 (万可义) 按照日程安排,国家统计局今日(21日)将公布2018年中国经济“成绩单”,2018年GDP增速是多少? 居民收入增速能否跑赢GDP?诸多看点值得关注。
  2018年中国经济总量预计达90万亿人民币
  据国家统计局数据,2017年,中国GDP首次突破80万亿元,同比增长6.8%。2018年前三季度国内生产总值为650899亿元,按可比价格计算,同比增长6.7%。分季度看,一季度同比增长6.8%,二季度增长6.7%,三季度增长6.5%。
  1月7日,国家发展改革委副主任、国家统计局局长宁吉喆在接受媒体采访时表示,2018年是很不平凡的一年,这一年国际国内环境复杂多变,经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进。年初提出了经济增长6.5%左右的预期,现在看来这个目标是能够较好实现的;2018年经济总量预计将达到90万亿人民币,较2017年增长8万亿人民币。
  此外,据世界银行去年12月20日发布的《中国经济简报》预测,2018年中国经济增长6.5%,中国经济“继续表现良好”。
  简报指出,当前中国经济增速放缓、外部环境充满挑战,但整体而言经济继续表现良好。世界银行中国局首席经济学家李伟乔说,消费仍将是推动中国经济增长的主要动力。
  另据Wind资讯统计,17家机构对2018年GDP增速的平均预测值为6.6%,预测最大值为6.7%,最小值6.5%。
  北大国民经济研究中心认为,受利润减少、中美贸易摩擦、环保限产以及融资约束影响因素,四季度工业生产整体表现欠佳在一定程度上制约了四季度GDP同比增速的增长,预测四季度GDP增速为6.4%,2018年全年GDP增速为6.6%。
  申宏万源认为,2018年11月的经济数据显示,消费实际增速边际改善,制造业投资持续走强、基建投资增速边际改善,地产投资维持相对高位,惟规模以上企业工业生产有所弱化。经济呈现边际企稳征兆,维持2018年GDP增长6.7%判断不变。
  固定资产投资料回暖
  投资方面,中新经纬客户端发现,国海证券、申万宏源等18家机构对2018年1-12月固定资产投资(不含农户)增速平均预测值为6.0%,预测最大值为7.1%,最小值5.5%。
  此前,据国家统计局数据,2018年1-11月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)609267亿元,同比增长5.9%。基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比增长3.7%,增速与1-10月份持平。
  国海证券宏观分析师樊磊认为,从近期房屋新开工等领先指标和粗钢产量等微观层面数据推断,预计去年12月房地产投资仍有韧性;近期财政政策加速调整,包括轨道交通、水利工程加速开工或推动基建投资单月同比有所反弹;但是企业盈利下滑等因素有可能继续影响制造业投资。
  申万宏源在研报中指出,财政支出对基建投资的支持力度强化,金融数据有望企稳,环保限产边际放松,叠加低基数效应,预计基建投资增速回升带动固定资产投资累计增速小幅上行至6.1%。基建投资方面,近两个月以来财政支出力度加大,预计基建投资累计同比增速由前11个月的3.7%反弹至5%。
  社会消费品零售或延续企稳态势
  消费方面,多数机构预测,2018年12月消费增速延续企稳态势。中新经纬客户端发现,华泰证券、海通证券等14家机构对2018年12月份社会消费品零售总额增速平均预测值为8.1%,预测最大值为9.2%,最小值7.6%。
  此前,国家统计局数据显示,2018年11月份社会消费品零售总额35260亿元,同比名义增长8.1%;2018年1-11月份,社会消费品零售总额345093亿元,同比增长9.1%。
  华泰证券认为,预计2018年12月社会消费品零售总额增速为8.6%,较前值回升0.5个百分点。2018年12月基数由2017年11月的10.2%大幅回落至12月的9.4%,预计基数效应能够推升12月消费增速。汽车消费或有环比改善,但仍为负值。
  申万宏源分析称,汽车和油价仍将持续拖累名义增速,但低基数和个税新税率逐步开始显现效果,预计2018年12月社零实际增速继续回升,名义增速稳中小幅改善。预计12月社零名义增速小幅回升至8.3%,实际增速则有望回升0.6个百分点至6.4%。
  交行首席经济学家连平对媒体表示,促消费政策逐渐释放效力,以及个税改革等措施的稳步推进,将为消费增长提供新的动能。预计2019年消费仍会保持平稳增长,对经济增长的贡献率将超过75%。
  居民收入增速能否跑赢GDP存期待
  国家统计局数据显示,2018年前三季度,各省区市居民收入增长平稳,居民人均可支配收入21035元,比上年同期名义增长8.8%;扣除价格因素,实际增长6.6%,快于人均GDP增速0.4个百分点。
  分省份看,上海、北京、浙江、天津、江苏、广东、福建、辽宁、山东等9个省份的人均可支配收入超过全国平均水平。
  如何让老百姓的“钱袋子”进一步鼓起来?业内人士指出,增加工资性收入是一个重要选项。居民可支配收入包括工资性收入、经营净收入、财产净收入和转移净收入。2018年前三季度,全国居民人均工资性收入11984元,占可支配收入的比重达到57.0%。这也意味着,工资性收入的增长将能直接带动整体收入的增长。
  中新经纬客户端注意到,2018年四季度多地提高最低工资标准,全年已有15个省份上调了最低工资标准,这对提高居民收入将是一个利好。
  2018年人均可支配收入情况如何?能否延续跑赢人均GDP增速的趋势?我们对此抱以期待。(中新经纬APP)
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