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如继续推行现行高排放路径 2100年全球或升温5℃

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019-03-22 15:02:30
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  如继续推行现行高排放路径 2100年全球或升温5℃  科技日报北京3月21日电 (记者付丽丽)“如不采取紧急行动加快减排,我们将面临无法实现《巴黎协定》制定的到21世纪末将全球升温限制在远低于2℃目标的显著风险。”21日,由中国国家气候变化专家委员会和英国气候变化委员会联合编写的《中英合作气候变化风险评估――气候风险指标研究》报告正式发布。  尽管全球能源系统正在转型,但进展过于缓慢且过于失调,无法实现低排放路径。研究显示,在12个行业指标中,仅有1个指标(即利用成熟的可再生能源,如陆上风能和太阳能光伏发电)是在符合2℃排放路径的轨道上。  报告进一步指出,继续推行现行政策会使世界处于高排放路径,会导致2100年全球升温5℃,“最坏情况”为升温7℃(10%概率)。以目前升温速度看,将会在全球范围内给人类和自然系统带来严重的直接风险:从全球尺度来看,到2100年,目前每年发生概率不足5%的热浪将几乎每年都会发生;洪水风险显著增加。到2100年,海平面升高1m会导致遭受百年一遇洪水的沿海地区增加50%等。
  报告显示,在中国,到21世纪末,热浪的数量可能增加至目前的2倍。80%的年份(目前约20%)水稻生长可能会受到高温损害,这意味着中国的粮食生产损失大约为20%。冰川退缩将近70%,中国西部缺水地区的水荒会加剧。如果考虑干旱等极端事件的影响,西部地区处于缺水压力下的人口会比目前增加近2倍。  专家表示,人为温室气体排放是气候变暖的首要因素。了解气候变化带来的风险对目前紧迫的减排工作至关重要。报告提出,各国要高度重视应对气候变化风险,若要实现低排放路径并避免高排放路径必须加快减排步伐,同时,需要新的治理措施来防控系统性风险等。  国家气候变化专家委员会名誉主任、中国工程院院士杜样琬说:“虽然无法消除未来的风险,但加快和提升目前减排行动的决心,可以为尽量减少气候灾害及避免触及气候适应极限带来最佳前景。我们仍有时间避免最严重的风险并且可从应对风险的行动中获益。”

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