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13省份发布今年GDP增长目标 近半设定为区间值

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019-01-20 13:26:01
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  中新经纬客户端1月19日电(李鹏飞)从2019年1月开始,全国各省份进入了地方“两会时间”,各地去年的经济成绩单与今年的经济增长目标也将一一揭晓。截至1月18日,共有13个省份在当地政府工作报告中披露了2019年GDP预期增长目标。值得注意的是,其中有5个省份将这一目标表述为区间值,加设上下限。
  多地下调今年GDP增长目标
  截至1月18日,共有西藏、北京、天津、河北、黑龙江、江苏、安徽、福建、湖北、四川、新疆、河南、辽宁13个省份在政府工作报告中披露了当地2019年GDP预期增长目标,与去年相比其中绝大多数为持平或下调。
  其中,天津、黑龙江、江苏、安徽等地均下调了2019年GDP增长目标。新疆从7%左右下调至5.5%左右,黑龙江从6%以上下调至5%以上,天津从5%下调至4.5%,江苏从7%以上下调至6.5%以上,安徽从8%以上下调至7.5%-8%。
  目标GDP增速下调幅度较大的是新疆和黑龙江。新疆下调了1.5个百分点,黑龙江下调了1个百分点。根据两省份14日公布的政府工作报告,预计新疆2018年地区生产总值增长6%左右、黑龙江2018年地区生产总值5%左右,均未达到2018年年初设定的目标。
  天津2019年的GDP增长目标暂时垫底。除了GDP增速从5%下调至4.5%,2019年天津市财政收入、社会消费品零售总额等目标均较去年有所下调:一般公共预算收入目标未设定具体数字只表示降幅继续收窄,而2018年这一目标为增长3%;社会消费品零售总额增长目标从6%左右降至5%。但另一方面,天津市2019年固定资产投资目标大幅提高,从2018年的6%左右上调至8%以上。
  值得注意的是,辽宁省2019年GDP增长目标并未设定具体数值,仅表示与全国保持同步。经历了GDP“注水风波”后,近两年辽宁省经济增速有所回升:继2016年成为当年中国唯一负增长省份后,2017年辽宁地区生产总值2.39万亿元,比上年增长4.2%;2018年,辽宁预计地区生产总值2.53万亿元,比上年增长5.6%左右,不过依然低于年初6.5%左右的目标。
  对于多地下调GDP增长目标,中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师徐洪才向中新经纬客户端表示,中国进入新常态以来,经济增速进入换档期,各地从实际出发将经济增长目标调低一点,不好高骛远,结构有优化改革有推进,向高质量增长推进也是好事。
  “另一方面,不能错误的将经济增长的低速度与高质量划等号,让老百姓有更多的获得感、幸福感、安全感仍然离不开一定的发展速度。”徐洪才指出,经济增速有一些下调也是符合实际的,但还是要挖掘增长的潜力,例如培育市场机制、激活微观主体的创造性、释放体制机制改革创新的红利等等,这个过程中由于技术进步、结构调整优化,经济增速也可能回升。
  5省份GDP增长目标为区间值
  资料图 中新经纬熊佳丽摄
  另一个值得注意的特点是,在上述13个省份中,福建、安徽、湖北、河南和北京5个省份的目标GDP增速均以区间的方式表述,而在2018年这些省份的政府工作报告中均未出现这种表述方式。
  例如,北京目标GDP增速由2018年的“6.5%左右”调整为2019年的“6%-6.5%”。北京市发改委有关负责人表示,这个目标体现出区间调控的概念跟去年增速相衔接,不过分追求GDP增速,这为功能疏解、环境治理、结构调整留出更大空间、腾出更多精力,也有利于体现稳中求进、稳字当头的工作基调,合理引导市场预期。
  此外,湖北目标GDP增速由2018年的“7.5%”调整为2019年的“7.5%-8%”,是其中唯一一个区间值的上限较2018年上调的省份。这显然与湖北2018年较好的经济增长相关。根据湖北省14日公布的政府工作报告,预计湖北2018年的GDP增速为7.8%左右,超过了此前设定的7.5%的目标。
  徐洪才表示,合理区间内的目标更科学一些,体现了政策的灵活性和弹性。一方面确保增速不低于底线,另一方面有天花板意味着不蛮干,不片面通过强经济刺激使GDP虚高。
  在2016年全国政府工作报告中,中国当年的经济增长目标曾被定为6.5%-7%,这是1995年以来在政府工作报告中首设区间值,今年是否同样会采取区间的表述方式?
  不少机构预计,2019年全国的经济增长目标也将是区间值。有媒体援引交行金融研究中心高级研究员何飞观点指出,2019年经济增长目标很可能会设定在6%-6.5%的区间。主要依据是中国经济增长的季度数据波幅有所加大,尤其是2018年三季度经济增长较二季度下滑0.2个百分点,这是自2015年以来首次出现的新情况,由此加大了2019年增长目标设定的难度。(中新经纬APP)
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